Technology inclusion, political risk, and climate action for sustainable development in MENA regions

This study examines the evolving relationships between climate action and four principal factors: digital financial inclusion, political stability, sustainable industrialisation, and technological innovation, within four lower-middle-income MENA countries (Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, and Tunisia) over the period from 2000 to 2024. Using wavelet coherence analysis, we examine how these variables interact across different time horizons, capturing both short-, medium-, and long-term cycles. Unlike conventional static approaches commonly used in previous MENA-focused climate studies, wavelet coherence analysis captures evolving lead–lag interactions across multiple time horizons. The results reveal evolving lead–lag patterns: political stability and sustainable industrialisation consistently show positive long-run coherence with climate action, highlighting the importance of stable governance and industrial strategy in supporting environmental goals. In contrast, digital financial inclusion and technology innovation exhibit mixed and phase-shifting behaviour, indicating context-dependent effects that vary across countries and time periods. To ensure robustness, we supplement the wavelet analysis with Fully Modified OLS (FMOLS), Dynamic OLS (DOLS), and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) models, which largely confirm the observed relationships. The findings show that political and industrial frameworks largely influence climate action in lower-middle-income MENA countries. Meanwhile, financial and technological factors need well-coordinated policies to reach desired goals. The study highlights the importance of integrating time–frequency techniques with standard econometric methods to develop effective, timely climate policies in resource-limited settings. The findings provide useful policy implications for strengthening climate governance and long-term sustainability planning in lower-middle-income MENA economies.