Predicting water quality parameters in a subtropical estuary under different scenarios: Evidence from the Gold Coast, Australia

= 0.67, RMSE = 3.26 mg/L). Scenario-based simulations reveal that precipitation and temperature are more strongly associated with chl a dynamics than nutrient enrichment alone, while TN, TP, and TSS show pronounced sensitivity to spatial variability in rainfall. These results highlight the potential importance of climate-driven processes in shaping estuarine water quality responses under the conditions evaluated. The study provides a novel framework that integrates data-driven prediction with observation-based modelling, spatial mapping, and scenario analysis. Together, these components enable high-resolution environmental predictions and provide a practical tool for adaptive water-quality management in dynamic estuarine systems.