The Nexus of CO2 Emissions, Economic Growth, and ICT Adoption in Saudi Arabia Assessed via an ARDL Framework

The rapid expansion of information and communication technology (ICT) alongside sustained economic growth poses a critical policy challenge for hydrocarbon-based economies seeking to reconcile digital development with environmental sustainability. This study examines both the short- and long-term relationships between per capita CO2 emissions, GDP per capita, and the adoption of ICT in Saudi Arabia, using annual time-series data for 1995–2024. Methodologically, we employ the ARDL bounds test, an error correction model (ECM), and Granger causality analysis to test the EKC hypothesis. Additionally, we use the Zivot–Andrews test to detect structural breaks, accounting for these through dummy variables. Long-run cointegration among the three variables is validated by the bounds test results. GDP is the dominant long-run driver of internet-based ICT adoption, while CO2 emissions and GDP are strongly cointegrated through the 2010 structural break and the EKC mechanism. No direct causal link is found between ICT and CO2 emissions in either direction. The long-run validity of the EKC hypothesis is confirmed, with an estimated income turning point of approximately USD 26,021 per capita, a level reached during the latter part of the sample period. These findings suggest that Saudi Arabia’s internet adoption has yet to generate an independent decarbonization dividend, underscoring the need for policies that couple ICT investment with clean energy deployment under Vision 2030.