Political risk, conflict, and food sovereignty: An empirical assessment of food self-sufficiency

Abstract Background : Food self-sufficiency (FSS) is a central component of national food security, yet existing research has largely focused on economic and environmental determinants, with limited attention to political and institutional factors. This study examines the determinants of the food self-sufficiency ratio (SSR) across 109 countries during 2012–2022, with particular emphasis on the role of political stability, armed conflict, corruption, and socio-economic conditions in shaping national FSS. Methods : The study employs a two-way fixed-effects panel model with country and year fixed effects and country-clustered standard errors, integrating conventional economic indicators alongside institutional and geopolitical variables, including political stability risk, armed conflict, and corruption. The analysis is conducted at three levels: a global sample of 109 countries, a subsample of OECD member countries, and a subsample of non-OECD countries. A qualitative case study of Israel is additionally used to contextualize the quantitative findings and illustrate the mechanisms through which persistent political and security challenges may shape food-system strategies in advanced economies. Results : The findings reveal a differentiated pattern of determinants across country groups. In the global model, GDP per capita and the Inequality-Adjusted Income Index are negatively and significantly associated with SSR, suggesting that more economically advanced countries tend to rely more heavily on food imports rather than domestic production. Within the OECD subsample, armed conflict exposure is positively and significantly associated with SSR, indicating that high-income countries facing security threats may respond by strengthening domestic production capacity and food-system resilience. No variable reaches statistical significance in the non-OECD subsample. The Israeli case illustrates how institutional adaptation and strategic policy responses can sustain moderate FSS under conditions of persistent geopolitical uncertainty. Conclusions : The findings indicate that the determinants of FSS are highly context-dependent and shaped by the interaction between economic development, institutional capacity, and geopolitical conditions. Strengthening food sovereignty requires stable governance, long-term policy coordination, and resilience mechanisms that reduce vulnerability to external shocks. Practical policy priorities include insulating food-system planning from short-term political cycles, integrating food security into national resilience strategies, and enhancing cross-sectoral coordination among agricultural, economic, and security institutions.