A sign of precarity or protection? Understanding the role of evacuations from disasters in international protection claims

Abstract This article examines the role that evacuations from disasters play in international protection claims, arguing that they should be understood not only as potentially life-saving interventions but also as actions that may reveal, generate, or compound risk. Although evacuations are commonly framed as temporary, protective responses to imminent hazards, they are also a form of displacement that can entrench precarity, particularly for those already affected by structural inequalities. Through a survey of jurisprudence, the article shows that decision makers often treat evacuations either as neutral background context or an indicator of effective State protection, rather than analysing their capacity to produce displacement-related harms. The article proposes an analytical framework for decision makers to better assess evacuation-related risks. It argues that a more nuanced, evidence-based understanding of evacuations is critical for accurately applying international refugee and human rights law, particularly in an era of accelerating climate-related hazards.