Good Bye, Lenin v3.0: The Thermodynamic and Geometrical Fallacy of Realpolitik, from the Balance of Power to the Grand Chessboard | Utilitarismus 404, Part II/IV

Position preprint. Companion to "Who Watches the Watchmen?" and "The Bankruptcy of Trolley Calculus" | [wAI ~ (prhps) wErrors] Realpolitik — the balance-of-power doctrine codified by Morgenthau, refined by Kissinger and Brzezinski, and now re-implemented as algorithmic statecraft — rests on five structural axioms: the world political system is closed; its power is conserved (zero-sum); capability is additive across coalitions; agents are objects with fixed response functions; and persons enter the state space only as aggregate coefficients. We show that each axiom fails independently. Closure is refuted by the thermodynamics of open systems and by the Great Enrichment (~30-fold per-capita growth), and the zero-sum appearance of the standard capability index is exposed as an artifact of share-normalised measurement. Additivity is refuted by superadditive cooperative games; strictly competitive games are shown to form a Lebesgue-null subset of the space of games — Realpolitik models the measure-zero case as if it were generic — and every human birth is a counterexample to the conservation of subjects (1 + 1 > 2). Objecthood is refuted by the Lucas critique, reflexivity, and constructivism; modelled geometrically, the security dilemma is exponential Jacobi divergence under negative curvature, which makes the long-horizon foresight the doctrine sells provably unavailable — the Grand Chessboard is a reductio of itself. A Misanthropy Lemma then shows that the doctrine is anti-human by construction, not by accident. Finally, under stated theological premises, Realpolitik fails the invariant-kernel test Φ of the companion framework: its fruits, its mechanism (managed mimetic rivalry), and its bookkeeping (grace is a non-conservative operation it cannot represent) locate its source outside the Teachings it would need to pass. What survives is Niebuhrian sobriety about sin and prudence under a negative "do not do wrong" floor. The constructive residue is an open-system statecraft whose empirical signature already exists: Versailles versus the Marshall Plan, and 1989 — the actual Good bye, Lenin event — which no balance mechanism produced. The target of critique is a published doctrine through its canonical texts, not the persons of its authors. Design principle: one figure and one table carry the argument; every bridge premise is a numbered, criticisable axiom. S.V.E. Meta-License v4.0[CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 + Symmetric Addendum]