Impact of Climate Change on the Potential Distribution of Macaúba ( <i>Acrocomia aculeata</i> , <i>Acrocomia totai</i> , <i>Acrocomia intumescens</i> ) in Brazil

ABSTRACT Understanding how climate change may alter species distributions is important for conservation planning and the sustainable expansion of bioenergy crops. Macaúba palms ( Acrocomia aculeata , A. totai , and A. intumescens ) are promising nonedible oilseed resources in Brazil, yet their future environmental suitability remains poorly quantified. Here, we developed a standardized ensemble modeling framework integrating biologically informed calibration areas, spatial block cross‐validation, and multistage covariate selection to evaluate climate‐driven shifts in the potential distribution of the three species. A key methodological feature was the generation of bioclimatic layers aligned with temporally explicit 20‐year historical windows matching occurrence records, reducing temporal mismatch between climate and biodiversity data. Models were built using climatic, edaphic, and elevation predictors, and future projections incorporated six CMIP6 global climate models under SSP2‐4.5, SSP3‐7.0, and SSP5‐8.5 for mid‐ and late‐century scenarios. All species achieved high predictive performance but differed markedly in their environmental responses and projected dynamics. Sensitivity analyses based on repeated random reductions of occurrence records showed limited variation in model performance metrics, indicating that ensemble projections were relatively insensitive to moderate occurrence‐data uncertainty. Acrocomia aculeata exhibited broad climatic and edaphic tolerance, resulting in relative stability and moderate redistribution among suitability classes. Acrocomia totai showed consistent gains in climatically suitable areas under future scenarios, suggesting potential expansion of environmentally compatible conditions. In contrast, Acrocomia intumescens , characterized by narrower environmental requirements, emerged as the most vulnerable species, with consistent losses in high and very high suitability areas, particularly under late‐century high‐emission scenarios. Together, these findings reveal contrasting climate change responses within Acrocomia , ranging from relative resilience to marked vulnerability, with direct implications for conservation, agricultural zoning, and climate adaptation strategies. Results also support A. aculeata as one of the most promising species for sustainable bioenergy production in Brazil.