Paris Agreement can reduce climate change-induced extinction risk fivefold and range shifts by two-thirds in fisheries worldwide

Abstract The oceans host indispensable ecosystem processes and services, playing a crucial role in climate regulation and food provision. In addition to well-documented threats such as overexploitation, habitat loss, and pollution, climate change is emerging as a major driver of biodiversity loss in the oceans. Expected impacts include shifts in species distributions, altering marine biodiversity patterns, and affecting regions highly dependent on fisheries. Here, using a systematic literature review and linear mixed models, we examined ~ 1,600 risk projections for 497 commercially exploited marine species to assess the potential of climate mitigation strategies to safeguard fisheries sustainability. We provide the projected changes for all species analyzed. While most species targeted by fisheries are not projected to experience substantial reductions in range size, severe range shifts are expected. A poleward shift was found in 92% of projections, with an average displacement of 50 km per decade in the absence of climate mitigation. Strategies aligned with the Paris Agreement could reduce global range shifts by two-thirds and decrease species extinction risk fivefold compared to unmitigated scenarios. Our study also underscores critical knowledge gaps, particularly in regions heavily reliant on fisheries, such as South America and Southeast Asia. While our approach encompasses fisheries in general, future research should further distinguish the impacts across artisanal, small-scale, and large-scale fisheries. The findings reinforce the Paris Agreement as a fundamental strategy to mitigate climate-driven disruptions in fisheries and support food security, aligning with the objectives of the United Nations Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development.