Evacuation Plan Design for Seismic Emergency in Historic Centres: Development of an Agent-Based Model

Evacuation planning in historic urban centres represents a crucial component of seismic risk reduction and emergency management. Such areas are typically characterised by dense urban structures, narrow street networks and valuable cultural heritage assets. These factors can significantly complicate evacuation processes during seismic events. Therefore, improving prepared-ness by developing reliable evacuation strategies is essential to reduce potential casualties and enhance the resilience of local communities. This study explores the potential of Agent-Based Modelling (ABM) to support seismic emergency planning. The proposed framework integrates the spatial characteristics of the built environment with the behavioural attitudes of the population in case of earthquake, in order to simulate evacuation dynamics under different damage scenarios and to identify the main factors affecting evacuation efficiency. The ABM is applied to the historic centre of Popoli Terme, a small town in the Abruzzo region, Italy, characterised by a complex urban morphology and significant seismic exposure. The results indicate how agent-based evacuation modelling provides valuable decision-support insights for local administrations, representing a first step towards improving emergency preparedness and strengthening community resilience in historic urban contexts.