Temporary carbon storage can mitigate slow-responding climate changes

Abstract Carbon removal and storage is central to many net-zero commitments, yet its durability, particularly for nature-based methods, is uncertain due to disturbance risks. Previous work shows that carbon storage-years (the time-integrated quantity of carbon storage) are proportional to time-integrated avoided warming, which in turn causes avoided changes in slow-responding climate variables. Here, we show that temporary carbon storage results in avoided changes in inertial climate variables. Avoided changes in 2100 are proportional to carbon storage-years across a range of storage amounts and emissions scenarios for permafrost carbon, ocean carbon, Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, ocean temperature, and thermosteric sea-level rise. By 2300, proportionality persists in some variables, notably sea-level rise, ocean temperature, and ocean carbon. Temporary storage therefore has climate benefits that extend beyond the duration of the storage, with some persistence of benefits even on multi-century timescales. We find that these climate benefits are greatest when temporary storage is paired with ambitious mitigation.

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Publication Details

Journal
Nature Communications
Published
2026-10-16
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-78620-8
Primary Topic
Climate Change Policy and Economics
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00

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article

Temporary carbon storage can mitigate slow-responding climate changes

Mitchell Dickau, H. Damon Matthews
Nature Communications
Climate Change Policy and Economics
article

Temporary carbon storage can mitigate slow-responding climate changes

Mitchell Dickau, H. Damon Matthews
article en

Abstract

Abstract Carbon removal and storage is central to many net-zero commitments, yet its durability, particularly for nature-based methods, is uncertain due to disturbance risks. Previous work shows that carbon storage-years (the time-integrated quantity of carbon storage) are proportional to time-integrated avoided warming, which in turn causes avoided changes in slow-responding climate variables. Here, we show that temporary carbon storage results in avoided changes in inertial climate variables. Avoided changes in 2100 are proportional to carbon storage-years across a range of storage amounts and emissions scenarios for permafrost carbon, ocean carbon, Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, ocean temperature, and thermosteric sea-level rise. By 2300, proportionality persists in some variables, notably sea-level rise, ocean temperature, and ocean carbon. Temporary storage therefore has climate benefits that extend beyond the duration of the storage, with some persistence of benefits even on multi-century timescales. We find that these climate benefits are greatest when temporary storage is paired with ambitious mitigation.

Nature Communications
Concordia University (CA)
Canadian Network for Research and Innovation in Machining Technology, Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada
Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 45%
Climate Change Policy and Economics
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