Spatial transfer and policy leakage of livestock carbon emissions driven by local livestock-free zone policies

Under the global climate governance framework and China's "Dual Carbon" goals, reducing carbon emissions from livestock farming has become an urgent priority. Local environmental regulations, such as "Livestock-Free Zone", aim to control emissions through spatial management but may cause unintended pollution transfer effects. Using Guangdong Province as a case study, this research analyzes the effects of the policy on livestock carbon emissions based on 2014–2023 county-level panel data, combining a spatial Durbin model, a continuous difference-in-differences model and network analysis. The results show that while the policy achieved local carbon reduction (direct effect: −0.047), it triggered significant spatial spillover effects (indirect effect: +0.148), amplifying the environmental cost by 3.14-fold and shifting it to neighboring regions. Further analysis reveals hierarchical emission transfers from Pearl River Delta core cities to less developed northern and western Guangdong regions, with heterogeneous environmental outcomes. Western Guangdong benefits from efficient livestock breeding technology, showing "high total emissions yet low carbon-emission intensity," while northern Guangdong falls into the trap of absorbing industrial capacity without efficiency gains and leading to magnified environmental risks. This study extends the Pollution Haven Hypothesis to land-intensive agricultural sectors, demonstrating how micro-level enforcement disparities drive passive capacity reallocation. It highlights the unintended externalities associated with fragmented policies and suggests that cross-regional governance, coupled with technology-driven capacity transfers, can mitigate leakage risks and promote sustainable development.