The impact of economic growth, industrialization, and energy intensity on energy consumption

Amidst escalating global concerns over climate change, energy security, and sustainable development, the Nordic countries, pioneers in carbon-neutrality targets, face a persistent dilemma: sustaining robust economic growth and industrialization without proportionally increasing energy consumption. While prior research has extensively examined the energy–growth nexus in emerging economies using mean-based regressions, advanced high-income contexts remain underexplored, especially distributional heterogeneity, distinct industrial versus manufacturing effects, and joint structural-efficiency drivers. Hence, this study investigates the heterogeneous effects of GDP per capita, industrial value added, manufacturing value added, and energy intensity on energy consumption (2000–2024) using panel quantile regression, while PCSE, DKSE, System GMM, and Dumitrescu-Hurlin causality for robustness checks. Results reveal that GDP per capita positively affects energy use across all quantiles, yet marginal effects weaken at higher levels, evidencing partial decoupling. Industrial value added significantly reduces consumption at lower quantiles, whereas manufacturing value added exerts a significant positive effect. Energy intensity emerges as the strongest, near-unit elastic driver. No support is found for an Environmental Kuznets Curve. Causality shows bidirectional relationships of energy consumption with manufacturing value added and energy intensity. All findings remain robust when different methodologies are applied. By uncovering quantile-specific patterns and disentangling sub-sector effects, this study delivers actionable policy guidance, including manufacturing-focused efficiency audits, a Nordic Green Industry Fund, and a binding “Energy Efficiency 2035” roadmap, to advance sustainable industrial transitions in high-income economies.