Identifying Airport and Vulnerable Hinterlands in Urban Agglomerations Using the Plume Model

Abstract With the rapid development of the civil aviation system, competition among airports within urban agglomerations has intensified, particularly in the form of competition for airport hinterlands. Accurately identifying airport hinterlands can mitigate the wastage of aviation resources and excessive airport construction, fostering synergistic development among airports. However, defining airport hinterlands is complex due to various factors, including geography, transportation, and economics. This study proposes a novel approach to identifying airport hinterlands by integrating airport operation indicators with an improved plume model. Using the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration as a case study, we identified the hinterlands of each airport. The results reveal that regional economic conditions play a crucial role in determining the intensity of airport point sources, with PVG, SHA, and HGH showing high point source intensity. The airport hinterlands are primarily centered on the airport location, extending outward along ground transportation networks to areas with lower competition. The extent of the hinterland is closely linked to airport point source intensity, as well as ground transportation accessibility and intercity connectivity. Additionally, we introduce the concept of vulnerable hinterlands to describe marginal areas within the airport’s hinterland, which may become key zones in future resource competition.