Ethical and Responsible Artificial Intelligence for Trade Forecasting: A Governance-Oriented Framework for Transparent Decision Support

Artificial Intelligence (AI) has become an important tool for trade forecasting because it cananalyze large volumes of economic data and improve prediction accuracy. These forecasts are increasingly usedto support policy formulation, trade planning, and strategic decision making. However, the growing adoption ofAI also raises concerns regarding transparency, accountability, fairness, privacy, and human oversight. Aforecasting model that produces accurate predictions may still create risks if its decisions cannot be understoodor governed responsibly. Although recent studies have improved forecasting performance through advancedmachine learning techniques, limited attention has been given to governance practices that promote the ethicaldeployment of AI in trade forecasting. This paper presents a governance-oriented conceptual framework forEthical and Responsible Artificial Intelligence in trade forecasting. The framework integrates six key principles:data governance, transparency, fairness, accountability, privacy, and human oversight. It provides a structuredapproach for developing AI systems that support responsible and transparent decision making while maintainingpublic trust. The proposed framework is intended to assist researchers, policymakers, and organizations indesigning AI-enabled trade forecasting systems that balance technological innovation with ethical responsibility.