被中断的"商人道路"——理解近代欧洲崛起的华夏内部视角

The rise of modern Europe exhibits a striking structural homology with the Shang civilization of ancient China. Both belong to the "loosely allied polycentric community" type, dominated by exchange-based economies, universal theocratic superstructures, and multi-centric political competition. Applying the Community Cohesion Model and the concept of convergent evolution, this paper argues that this homology is not coincidental, but results from independent civilizations evolving similar adaptive strategies under similar geographical and climatic ecological niches. However, beneath this structural homology, a fundamental divergence exists in the theocratic core: the Shang "Di" (帝) is a synthesis of nature gods and ancestral spirits, possessing a strong "human-rooted" character; the Christian "God" is an absolutely transcendent, supra-mundane deity. This "core heterogeneity" led to divergent evolutionary paths. The Shang path (exchange-dominant) was interrupted by the Zhou path (agriculture-dominant), which evolved from a Type II structure towards Type I under the extreme survival pressure of Guanzhong, culminating in Qin unification. The structural features of the Shang path—polycentrism, exchange drive, and universal theocratic synthesis—were reactivated and magnified within the Christian framework in post-Roman Europe. Using the three core models—Community Cohesion, Political Philosophy Cohesion, and Dynamic Success Probability—this paper explains the differentiation and interruption of these paths, the deep logic behind structural homology vs. core heterogeneity, and why the merchant path was revived in Europe but terminated in China. It offers a structural explanation for the Great Divergence without invoking determinism or diffusionism. Keywords: Shang Civilization; Early Modern Europe; Community Cohesion Model; Political Philosophy Cohesion Model; Dynamic Success Probability Model; Convergent Evolution; Civilizational Comparison; Great Divergence; Theocratic Core.