Prediction of Crowd Behavior in Holy Sites: Psychological, Social, and Risk Perception Factors among Pilgrims

<ns5:p> Background Large religious gatherings such as Hajj involve complex psychological and social processes that influence pilgrims’ experiences and crowd behavior. This study examined risk perception, psychosocial factors, and adaptive crowd behavior among pilgrims, explored the relationships among these variables, and evaluated their predictive contribution to crowd behavior. Methods A descriptive, correlational, and predictive cross-sectional design was employed. A purposive sample of 407 pilgrims completed validated measures of risk perception, psychosocial factors, and crowd behavior. Descriptive statistics, univariate between-subjects analyses, Pearson’s correlation coefficients, and multiple regression analyses were performed. Results Pilgrims demonstrated moderate-to-high levels of risk perception and adaptive crowd behavior, together with balanced psychosocial characteristics. Nationality was significantly associated with risk perception, psychosocial factors, and crowd behavior (all p &lt; 0.001), whereas economic level was associated only with psychosocial factors (p = 0.041). No significant differences were observed according to age or educational level. Positive correlations were found among the principal study variables. The regression model was statistically significant (R <ns5:sup>2</ns5:sup> = 0.181, p &lt; 0.001). Psychosocial factors significantly predicted adaptive crowd behavior (β = 0.391, p &lt; 0.001), whereas risk perception was not a significant independent predictor after psychosocial factors were entered into the model (β = 0.049, p = 0.413). Conclusion Risk perception was associated with adaptive crowd behavior at the bivariate level, whereas psychosocial factors emerged as the significant independent predictor in the regression model. Strengthening institutional trust, personal readiness, learning, and spiritually relevant communication may support safer and more cooperative crowd behavior during Hajj. Integrating psychosocial considerations into crowd-management and risk-communication strategies may enhance safety and well-being during major religious gatherings. </ns5:p>