Seedand Oil Yield Prediction of Safflower (Carthamus tinctorius L.) Using UAV-Based Multispectral Imaging and Machine Learning Algorithms

The objective of this study was to predict seed and oil yields in safflower (Carthamus tinctorius L.) using UAV-based multispectral imagery and machine learning algorithms. The study was conducted during the 2024 growing season under varying irrigation levels, fertilization practices, and applications of plant growth-promoting rhizobacteria. The experiment included four irrigation levels, fertilized and unfertilized conditions, and bacterial treatments consisting of Bacillus pumilus, Bacillus albus, their mixture, and a non-bacterial control. Sixty-two vegetation indices were calculated from multispectral images acquired during the harvest maturity period and used to predict seed and oil yields. To identify the most informative features, Mutual Information, Recursive Feature Elimination, and LASSO feature selection methods were applied; subsequently, Linear Regression, Decision Tree, Random Forest, Support Vector Regression, K-Nearest Neighbors, and XGBoost regression algorithms were compared. The results showed that Linear Regression combined with Mutual Information-based feature selection was the most successful approach for predicting both seed and oil yields. According to the 5-fold cross-validation results, average values of R=0.8600, MAE=0.2870, and RMSE=0.3765 were obtained for seed yield prediction, while average values of R=0.8710, MAE=0.0876, and RMSE=0.1101 were obtained for oil yield prediction.