Spatiotemporal Assessment of Urban Expansion, Land Surface Temperature Dynamics, and Vegetation Health in a Semi-Arid City

Rapid urban expansion and agricultural development have substantially altered land use/land cover (LULC), surface thermal regimes, and ecosystem conditions in semi-arid cities. This study investigates the spatiotemporal dynamics of LULC and evaluates their associations with land surface temperature (LST), vegetation health, soil moisture, and drought conditions in Ghazni City, Afghanistan, between 2013 and 2023 using a Google Earth Engine (GEE)-based framework. Landsat 8 OLI/TIRS imagery was classified using a Random Forest (RF) algorithm, while the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI), Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), Temperature Condition Index (TCI), Vegetation Health Index (VHI), and LST were derived to evaluate environmental responses. To provide a comprehensive evaluation of urban–climate interactions, monthly Landsat-derived LST time series were analyzed and compared to MODIS and ERA5 datasets through a multi-source consistency assessment framework. The RF classification achieved overall accuracies of 95.56% (2013) and 97.77% (2023), with Kappa coefficients of 0.89 and 0.94, respectively. Results revealed a substantial expansion of built-up areas (5.4%) and vegetation/agricultural land (7.2%), accompanied by a decline in bare land. Urban and barren surfaces consistently exhibited higher LST values, whereas vegetated areas demonstrated a pronounced cooling effect. NDVI and SAVI analyses indicated improving vegetation conditions and soil moisture status over the study period. LST exhibited strong seasonal variability, with summer maxima reaching 49.74 °C and winter minima declining to −8.39 °C. Comparisons among the Landsat, MODIS, and ERA5 datasets demonstrated strong agreement, with a high correlation between Landsat- and MODIS-derived LST (R = 0.84), supporting the reliability of the Landsat-derived LST estimates. Generally, the findings demonstrate the critical role of vegetation in moderating surface temperatures and enhancing urban climate resilience, providing scientific evidence for sustainable land use planning and climate adaptation strategies in semi-arid cities.