Climate Risk and Real Estate Bond Pricing in China

Understanding the pricing of climate risks in bond markets is relevant to financial stability. The real estate sector, characterized by geographically fixed and long-duration assets, exhibits high exposure to environmental shocks; yet, empirical matching between specific climate channels and real estate bond pricing remains sparse. This analysis examines the impact of climate risks on corporate bond credit spreads within the real estate sector by constructing three thematic indicators: transition risk (CTRI), chronic physical risk (ChroCPRI), and acute physical risk (AcuCPRI). Initial feature selection via machine learning suggests all three risk categories as predictive covariates for bond pricing. Subsequent regression estimations indicate that climate transition risk and acute physical risk expand credit spreads, whereas chronic physical risk compresses them—with these statistical patterns being more pronounced among state-owned enterprises (SOEs). Mechanism analyses yield threefold insights: first, transition risk elevates spreads by tightening financing constraints and restricting corporate asset growth, a channel concentrated in short-term tranches and low-liquidity firms; second, the counterintuitive spread-compressing effect of chronic risk is localized among firms with lower credit ratings and lower profitability, consistent with institutional climate support frameworks and strategic green adaptations; third, acute physical risk widens spreads by compressing operational cash flows and exacerbating financing friction, particularly for smaller enterprises. These channels align with the structural attributes of SOEs, which are characterized by larger asset scales, superior capital liquidity, and a higher propensity to secure state guarantees.