Probability Estimation and Regional Differentiation of Agro-Meteorological Damage Risk for Agricultural Sustainability: Based on a Nonparametric Normal Information Diffusion Model

The probability estimation of agrometeorological damage risk is the core technical support for consolidating the agricultural disaster prevention and reduction system and ensuring the sustainable development of national agriculture. It has been widely applied in agricultural production and agricultural insurance. Based on the crop planting area data, as well as the damaged crop area data (damage-affected, damage-stricken, and dead harvest) of 31 provinces and municipalities from 1980 to 2018, this study creatively builds a comprehensive damage strength index. After that, this study obtains accurate risk probability estimation results of five meteorological damage types by using the parameters of the nonparametric normal information diffusion model. The results show that the risk probability of comprehensive meteorological damage is the largest, followed by drought, flood, wind and hail, and freezing. Flood in Hubei, drought in NeiMenggol, windstorm and hailstorm in Qinghai, freezing damage in Hainan, and comprehensive meteorological damage in NeiMenggol have the highest risk probability. The regions where various meteorological damage occur show different distribution characteristics, which is closely related to the latitude and longitude and topography of China. These findings indicate that it is necessary to understand the overall patterns of agrometeorological damage risks and consider their internal heterogeneity, in order to take targeted prevention and control measures to avoid systemic risks in agricultural production and safeguard sustainable and high-quality agricultural development.