Spatial Heterogeneity of Urban Expansion in an Urban Agglomeration: A Study Using the MGWR Model

Abstract The Yellow River Basin acts as a key ecological shield and economic belt in China. Investigating urban expansion within this basin can facilitate strategic decision-making aimed at enhancing regional collaboration and coordinated economic development. The dynamic interaction between the basin and its urban agglomerations poses distinct challenges and prospects, yet comparative studies on urban sprawl and the intricate driving forces behind such shifts are still inadequate. This study centers on urban agglomerations in the Yellow River Basin, exploring the variations in urban expansion across 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020. Employing the multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) model, this study explores in depth the spatial and multiscale heterogeneity of the driving forces influencing urban expansion in 2010 and 2020. The results showed that: (1) The Ningxia Yellow River and HubaoEyu Urban Agglomerations exhibited the fastest expansion rates, reaching 8.719% and 11.138%, respectively, between 2000 and 2010. The Shandong Peninsula Urban Agglomeration demonstrated a notably greater expansion intensity compared with other urban agglomerations, peaking at 0.464% between 2010 and 2020. The Guanzhong and Central Plains Urban Agglomerations encompassed the most extensive construction land, accounting for 58.75% of the construction land across the entire region. (2) Urban agglomerations within the midlower Yellow River Basin are progressively developing partial contiguity, with urban expansion predominantly manifesting as enclave expansion and edge expansion. (3) With regard to the driving mechanisms, elevation, population density, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) emerged as the most influential factors on urban expansion. These factors exhibited significant spatial heterogeneity and nonuniform scales of influence. Consequently, this research offers valuable insights for enhancing the urban spatial configuration of Yellow River Basin urban agglomerations and fostering sustainable urban expansion.