Academic Performance Forecasting via Data Imputation and Bayesian Neural Networks

This study aims to accurately predict students’ academic performance trajectories for university entrance examinations by proposing a machine learning framework that explicitly accounts for missing data and uncertainty. Mock examination data are characterized by substantial missing values due to heterogeneous participation in exams, as well as inherent randomness caused by variations in test content and examinee conditions. Conventional single-value imputation methods cannot adequately reconstruct the missing values arising from such heterogeneous participation without introducing strong bias, and existing educational prediction models based on deterministic formulations do not account for the inherent randomness and uncertainty in examination scores, thereby limiting the reliability of their forecasts. To address these challenges, we employ GP-VAE and SAITS, state-of-the-art methods for time-series imputation, to reconstruct incomplete mock examination data. Furthermore, we develop a Bayesian Neural Network (BayesNN) to predict future academic performance while explicitly modeling uncertainty. By integrating temporally aware imputation with probabilistic prediction, the proposed framework aims to provide more accurate and reliable performance forecasts than existing approaches. We evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed method through comparative experiments involving various combinations of imputation techniques and prediction models. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed framework achieves competitive predictive accuracy: the combination of deep imputation methods and BayesNN yields the lowest average estimation error of 15.98 points, compared with 16.75 points for the conventional combination of mean imputation and linear regression. The contribution of this study does not lie in proposing a new deep learning model itself, but rather in systematically comparing combinations of time-series imputation methods and uncertainty-aware prediction models using real-world mock examination sequence data with missing values, thereby providing effective design guidelines for educational data analysis.