Subjecthood, Not Sovereignty What Actually Separates Weimar from Bonn — and What It Implies for the Federalisation Debate and the End of This War

The e paper operationalizes the ν-criterion of post-war settlement stability. Stability is modeled as afunction of the defeated node’s embeddedness in institutions capable of contesting it, not the size ofreparations. ν is defined as the geometric mean of three observables: voice in common institution,recognized subjecthood, and reciprocity of jurisdiction. On 9 historical settlements, ν < 0.35 perfectlyseparates relapse from peace and outperforms the baseline “account size” model (AUC 1.0 vs 0.8).The formula turns a metaphor into a falsifiable hypothesis with an explicit protocol for its own refutation.