Anti-environmental political agendas, firearm deregulation and illegal hunting in Brazil

Political ideologies and governance decisions can profoundly influence conservation outcomes in tropical countries, where biodiversity intersects with rapid socio-political change. Brazil—the world's largest tropical country—provides a key case to examine how political agendas and regulatory shifts shape wildlife exploitation across governance frontiers. Using 2046 illegal sport hunting records shared on social media during Jair Bolsonaro's 2019–2022 presidency, we applied a hierarchical zero-inflated binomial model to analyse the municipal-level probability of illegal hunting as a function of ecological, accessibility, socio-economic, and political factors. Political variables included electoral support for Bolsonaro as a proxy for alignment with anti-environmental agendas and civilian gun ownership rates reflecting firearm regulatory changes during his administration. Illegal hunting probability was higher in municipalities with greater human population density, higher defaunation levels, more remaining natural habitat, higher GDP per capita, stronger anti-environmental political alignment, and higher gun ownership rates. Standardized coefficients showed that political alignment and gun ownership had effect magnitudes comparable to ecological and accessibility factors. Spatial predictions revealed illegal hunting hotspots within and around the Arc of Deforestation in southern and eastern Amazonia. Our results suggest illegal hunting reflects the convergence of ecological and socio-economic conditions and permissive political contexts. In Amazonia, increased hunting pressure may intensify competition over wildlife resources and undermine the food security of Indigenous peoples and local communities. Brazil's experience illustrates how political narratives and weapon proliferation may restructure wildlife exploitation patterns, highlighting the need for politically insulated environmental enforcement, firearm regulation, and governance resilient to ideological shifts.

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Publication Details

Journal
Biological Conservation
Published
2026-07-18
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2026.111989
Primary Topic
Wildlife Ecology and Conservation
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00

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article

Anti-environmental political agendas, firearm deregulation and illegal hunting in Brazil

Marcélia Basto da Silva, Thaís Q. Morcatty, Daniel Zani La Laina, Camila Alvez Islas et al.
Biological Conservation
Wildlife Ecology and Conservation
article

Anti-environmental political agendas, firearm deregulation and illegal hunting in Brazil

Marcélia Basto da Silva, Thaís Q. Morcatty, Daniel Zani La Laina, Camila Alvez Islas, Sarah Mângia, José Maurício Barbanti Duarte, Daniel J. Ingram, Rafael Sá Leitão Barboza, Gabriel Fávero Massocato, Aline Pessutti Rampini, Juliano A. Bogoni, Simon Knoop (21355290), Hani R. El Bizri, Julia E. Fa, Zilca Campos, Arnaud L.J. Desbiez, João Vitor Campos-Silva, Marcela A. Oliveira, Kacie Henson
article en

Abstract

Political ideologies and governance decisions can profoundly influence conservation outcomes in tropical countries, where biodiversity intersects with rapid socio-political change. Brazil—the world's largest tropical country—provides a key case to examine how political agendas and regulatory shifts shape wildlife exploitation across governance frontiers. Using 2046 illegal sport hunting records shared on social media during Jair Bolsonaro's 2019–2022 presidency, we applied a hierarchical zero-inflated binomial model to analyse the municipal-level probability of illegal hunting as a function of ecological, accessibility, socio-economic, and political factors. Political variables included electoral support for Bolsonaro as a proxy for alignment with anti-environmental agendas and civilian gun ownership rates reflecting firearm regulatory changes during his administration. Illegal hunting probability was higher in municipalities with greater human population density, higher defaunation levels, more remaining natural habitat, higher GDP per capita, stronger anti-environmental political alignment, and higher gun ownership rates. Standardized coefficients showed that political alignment and gun ownership had effect magnitudes comparable to ecological and accessibility factors. Spatial predictions revealed illegal hunting hotspots within and around the Arc of Deforestation in southern and eastern Amazonia. Our results suggest illegal hunting reflects the convergence of ecological and socio-economic conditions and permissive political contexts. In Amazonia, increased hunting pressure may intensify competition over wildlife resources and undermine the food security of Indigenous peoples and local communities. Brazil's experience illustrates how political narratives and weapon proliferation may restructure wildlife exploitation patterns, highlighting the need for politically insulated environmental enforcement, firearm regulation, and governance resilient to ideological shifts.

Biological ConservationVol. 321
Royal Zoological Society of Scotland (GB), Brazilian Institute of Environment and Renewable Natural Resources (BR), Manchester Metropolitan University (GB), Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso do Sul (BR), Universidade Federal de Rondônia (BR), Oxford Brookes University (GB), Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia (BR), Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (BR), Universidade Aberta (PT), University of Kent (GB), Sainsbury Laboratory (GB), Field Museum of Natural History (US), Universidade do Estado de Mato Grosso (BR), University of Oxford (GB), Gibraltar Health Authority (GI), Instituto Maria e Joao Aleixo (BR), OnApp (Gibraltar) (GI), Instituto de Desenvolvimento Sustentável Mamirauá (BR), Versuchs- und Lehranstalt für Brauerei in Berlin (DE), Instituto de Conservação de Animais Silvestres (BR), University College London (GB), University of Salford (GB), Universidade Federal Rural de Pernambuco (BR), Universidade Federal de Alagoas (BR), Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp) (BR)
Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, UK Research and Innovation, Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior, Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico
Openalex Percentile: Top 8%
Wildlife Ecology and Conservation
DOIOpen Access PDFOpenAlex
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