Trade-embedded water and resource security in Western and Eastern African cereal systems

Abstract Water and land scarcity are intensifying across Western and Eastern Africa (WEA) due to rapid population growth, climate variability, and rising food demand, placing increasing pressure on agricultural systems and cereal production. Although international cereal trade can help alleviate domestic resource constraints through virtual water transfers, there remain a limited systematic empirical evidence on how water and land embodied in trade flows affect regional resource security in WEA. This study aims to quantify the virtual water and land embedded in cereal imports and evaluate their implications for water and land resource conservation, as well as trade dependence in the region. Using FAOSTAT production and bilateral trade data for fourteen WEA countries from 2000 to 2023, the study combines virtual water and land accounting with trade network analysis. It applies water-footprint coefficients to quantify resource flows embedded in trade and uses in-degree centrality metrics to evaluate countries’ positions within the trade network. The results show that cereal imports generated significant water and land savings in several countries, particularly in Ethiopia, Tanzania, and Kenya. Meanwhile, countries such as Nigeria, Sudan, and Niger remained highly dependent on domestic production. The trade network is highly concentrated around a small set of key suppliers and import hubs, creating structural vulnerabilities to climatic shocks and geopolitical disruptions. These findings highlight the dual role of cereal trade as both a mechanism for conserving domestic resources and a potential source of systemic risk. The study concludes that strengthening supply diversification, promoting intra-African cereal trade, and investing in resource-efficient agricultural practices are critical policy strategies to enhance regional food and resource security.