Narrative Momentum & Survival Index (NMSI-100): development of an innovative methodology for assessing the narrative sustainability of memcoins based on socio-financial analysis

The present study is aimed at solving the scientific problem of analyzing and forecasting memcoin prices, whose value is poorly explained by traditional financial models. The author develops an innovative financial and sociological index that overcomes this limitation by integrating quantitative methods with the analysis of socio-cultural and narrative factors. The key scientific result is the creation of a comprehensive ten-factor valuation model, in which priority is given to the strength of the cultural code, community cohesion and the ability to generate collective attention as the primary drivers of value. Practical testing of the methodology has confirmed its validity for assessing the narrative stability and long-term potential of assets. The developed tool provides a new systematic approach to the analysis of crypto assets, whose price has traditionally been considered unpredictable. The article will be useful to researchers at the intersection of behavioral finance and digital economics, as well as to practitioners of the cryptocurrency market interested in analyzing the intangible determinants of value.