How chokepoint forms: causes and paths of technology dependence in China’s chip industry

This study applies multi-period fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) to 34 key technologies in Mainland China’s chip industry to examine how technology characteristics, capabilities, external embargoes, patent strategies jointly shape technology dependence. The findings show that high technology dependence is not driven by any single factor, but emerges from distinct configurations of multiple conditions, with substantial variation across technological domains. Technological characteristics, capability gaps, and patent strategies consistently constitute the core conditions of dependence, whereas external embargoes shift from a core to a peripheral role over time. As technological competition intensifies, the paths to high technology dependence in the early stages converge from three into two main configurations: one driven by high technological complexity and large capability gaps which characterises high-precision technologies, and the other by restrictive patent landscapes combined with capability asymmetries which describes applied technologies. The case of AMEC further reveals the mechanisms underlying the configurational findings, showing how firms can mitigate technology dependence under strong external constraints. Continuous patent landscape identification, technological trajectory reconfiguration, and cumulative patent portfolio development enable firms to build indigenous capabilities and weaken the effects of external patent barriers and capability asymmetries.