Digital–Real Integration and Urban Green Transition: The Role of Green Patent and AI in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

The role of digital–real integration in urban green transition remains underexplored, particularly regarding whether green patent and AI serve as mediators or moderators. This study investigates this question within the context of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, a critical region for China’s sustainability efforts. Using panel data from 84 prefecture-level cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (2010–2022), we examine the impact mechanisms and spatial spillovers of digital–real integration on urban green transition, with explicit attention to two green factors: green patent and AI. We find that digital–real integration significantly promotes urban green transition. Both factors function as moderators rather than mediators: green patent positively condition the effect of digital–real integration, while AI negatively conditions it, and formal mediation tests yield no significant indirect effects. Spatial Durbin Model estimates further confirm that the green benefits of digital–real integration are predominantly localized, with no significant complementary spillovers detected across most spatial weight specifications. While a competitive spillover emerges under geographic adjacency, the overall evidence points to the localized nature of digital–real integration’s environmental effects.