Four decades of spatio-temporal habitat dynamics in a human-wildlife co-existence landscape in the Liuwa ecosystem of Zambia

Human encroachment into wildlife habitats has led to extensive habitat loss and fragmentation, often resulting in the displacement and decline of wildlife populations across African Ecosystem. Meanwhile, Habitat is operationally defined as natural land cover types that directly support wildlife, namely forest, grassland, and wetland, therefore, this study assessed four decades (1984—2024) of spatio-temporal habitat dynamics in Liuwa Plain National Park (NP), a human-wildlife co-existence landscape of Zambia. Habitat trajectories inside and outside the park were compared to evaluate the protective effect of co-management. Using Landsat satellite imagery classified at 10-year intervals (1984, 1994, 2004, 2014, and 2024) and a random forest algorithm with a two-step approach: pixel-based classification followed by an object-based refinement, we produced thematic maps with accuracies of 82—89%, with the 2024 map being the most accurate. This study assessed habitat extent rather than habitat quality. Results show a 20% decline in forest cover, a 5% loss of grasslands, and a 3% reduction in wetlands and water bodies in 2024, likely due to the 2023/2024 drought. Habitat loss was greater outside the park than inside, concentrated in the southern Kalabo Urban Zone and more evident outside the park boundaries. These shifts indicate rising anthropogenic pressure on habitat critical to wildlife persistence. The study underscores the need for integrated land-use planning, habitat management, adaptive park zonation and supports the identification of ecological hotspots to sustain co-existence and ecological integrity in Liuwa NP and similar landscapes.