Linking plant water status dynamics to yield and fruit cracking in citrus orchards using UAV multi-sensor data and machine learning

Citrus fruit cracking causes substantial yield and economic losses, yet its relationship with plant water status (PWS) and irrigation management remains insufficiently characterized. Unlike previous UAV-based irrigation studies that focused on water-stress detection or yield estimation, this study introduces a dynamic, physiology-based framework that links temporal PWS trajectories during key phenological stages to fruit-cracking risk at the individual-tree scale. UAV-based multispectral, thermal, and LiDAR data, combined with field physiological measurements and machine-learning models, were evaluated in an irrigation management experiment in an ‘Ori’ mandarin orchard (Israel) across three contrasting growing seasons (2023–2025). Several irrigation treatments with different irrigation timings and water inputs were applied during the growing season to evaluate their effects on temporal PWS dynamics and fruit cracking. Trunk growth (TG), stem water potential (SWP), stomatal conductance (SC), and plant area index (PAI) were measured throughout the two seasons and estimated using Random Forest models (R 2 > 0.783). These indicators were subsequently used to predict yield and fruit cracking with high accuracy (yield: R² = 0.896; cracking: R² = 0.845). Cracking was lowest in 2023 (∼3%), with ∼25% lower irrigation, suggesting reduced irrigation may reduce cracking risk. Higher cracking in 2024 (∼14%, vs ∼8% in 2025) coincided with intense heat events. Mid-season SWP and SC were strongly associated with yield formation and cracking patterns. These findings demonstrate that monitoring temporal PWS dynamics can support precision irrigation management by identifying high-risk zones and enabling irrigation strategies that stabilize PWS, reduce the incidence of cracking, and improve yield under variable climatic conditions.