Techno-energy assessment within a municipal energy transition index for local energy-system planning

This paper presents a methodological framework for evaluating local energy transition processes through the Techno-Energy pillar of a Municipal Energy Transition Index, designed to support policy decision-making at the municipal level. The framework integrates diagnostic indicators, energy-efficiency improvements, and local resource potential into a unified structure that quantifies both current energy diagnosis and the achievable technical mitigation capacity of municipal energy systems. The methodology is structured around five pillars that collectively define the municipal energy transition, although this paper focuses exclusively on the techno-energy pillar, which formalises the assessment of energy flows and emission reductions. The approach is applied to a Mediterranean municipality, analysing current sectoral electricity demand, limited local generation, and associated emissions (124 kt CO 2 /year), while estimating the mitigation potential of efficiency measures and renewable-resource mobilisation. Three transition scenarios are evaluated. The Moderate scenario activates 35% of identified efficiency potential and 20% of resource potential, achieving a 55% reduction in emissions. The Ambitious scenario scales deployment to 45% and 25%, respectively, enabling a 70% reduction. The Neutrality scenario exploits the available technical potential (65% efficiency, 35% resources), reaching a configuration compatible with net-zero emissions. The results show that the proposed techno-energy pillar provides a consistent, scalable, and policy-relevant methodology to support policymakers in planning, prioritising, and monitoring sustainable energy actions, strengthening climate-policy alignment and evidence-based transition strategies.