Driving Factors and Decoupling Effects of Sea Port Carbon Emission with the “Dual Carbon” Goals: A Case Study of Shanghai Port

Sea ports play a crucial role in global trade and transportation, but their high energy consumption and associated carbon emissions challenge sustainable development. While carbon emissions have been widely studied in many sectors, research on port carbon emissions remains limited. The analysis covers 2008–2023, treats Shanghai Municipality as the principal economic hinterland of Shanghai Port, and draws primarily on SIPG’s annual and sustainability reports. This study quantifies carbon emissions at ports and analyzes their key drivers. Using the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method, a decomposition framework is developed to identify and assess the main factors contributing to port-related carbon emissions. By integrating the LMDI method with the Tapio decoupling model, the study further examines the decoupling process between carbon emissions and hinterland economic growth, as well as the mechanisms driving changes in decoupling. Shanghai Port, the world’s largest container port, is selected as a case study. The results show that: (1) hinterland economic development was the dominant positive driver (+90.69), whereas port throughput intensity exerted the strongest inhibitory effect (−63.24), followed by energy intensity (−47.42); (2) energy intensity and port throughput intensity promoted carbon reduction and decoupling, while hinterland economic growth constrained further decoupling, and energy structure optimization retained substantial mitigation potential.