Impact of government-guided funds on breakthroughs in enterprises’ key technologies: a chain mediating effect of digital transformation and technological absorptive capacity

With the synergistic force of policy leverage and market mechanism, government-guided funds have become important practical exploration for releasing the vitality of breakthroughs in key technologies for enterprises. This study constructs evolutionary game model between the government and enterprises to theoretically investigate the strategic choices and influencing factors under the support of government-guided funds. Based on data from A-share listed enterprises in China from 2016 to 2023, this study examines the impact of government-guided funds on breakthroughs in key technologies and analyzes the realisation path using the chain intermediary model. The findings indicate that government-guided funds can promote breakthroughs in key technologies and that their impact follows a dual-threshold pattern determined by the level of investment. Government-guided funds promote breakthroughs in key technologies through the chain intermediary channel of ‘promoting digital transformation – enhancing technology absorption capacity’. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that government-guided funds significantly promote breakthroughs in key technologies among enterprises adopting the mother-sub-fund model, non-state-owned enterprises, enterprises in high-tech industries, and those located in regions with low levels of marketisation. This study provides theoretical references and micro-mechanisms for clarifying the innovation path of government-enterprise interaction.