University entrance scores as department-level indicators of English preparatory program outcomes in a Turkish state University

Despite the widespread use of centralized examination systems globally, institutions lack evidence-based frameworks to inform program-level decision-making and resource allocation in intensive English preparatory programs. This study examines whether university entrance examination scores serve as institutional-level indicators of these decisions. Analysis of aggregate departmental data from 15 departments ( N = 443 students) at a Turkish state university revealed a strong department-level correlation between average entrance scores and preparatory program success rates ( r = 0.83, p < 0.001), accounting for 69% of the variance in departmental outcomes. The regression model (Success Rate = − 46.76 + 0.207 × Entrance Score) illustrates the nature of this institutional-level relationship. Substantial faculty-level differences emerged: Engineering departments achieved 44.4% success compared with 11.1% in Health Sciences (d = 1.24), suggesting that uniform program delivery may warrant further institutional review. The Academic Preparedness Transfer Model is proposed as a conceptual framework consistent with these findings, identifying cognitive, metacognitive, and motivational transfer as potential pathways warranting direct investigation in future research. These findings suggest that existing entrance data may inform institutional-level decisions regarding program differentiation and resource allocation, though individual-level applications require further validation with student-level data.