INSTITUTIONAL MATURITY AND FISCAL ALIGNMENT: TOURISM AND CREATIVE ECONOMY BUDGET STRUCTURES IN INDONESIA'S APBN 2026

This deposit contains Version 1.0 of a research manuscript examining how institutional maturity and governance arrangements influence the fiscal treatment of tourism and the creative economy in Indonesia’s 2026 State Budget (APBN 2026). The study focuses on the newly separated ministerial budget authorities for tourism (BA 147) and the creative economy (BA 148), investigating why the creative economy’s substantial macroeconomic contribution has not translated into comparable program-oriented fiscal capacity. The manuscript combines institutional analysis of official budget and planning documents, proportional gap measurement using a diagnostic 70:30 program-to-management expenditure benchmark, and system dynamics simulations covering 2026–2035. The findings indicate that BA 148’s management-dominated budget structure reflects institutional discontinuity, limited program-pipeline readiness, and misalignment within broader governance and legislative oversight arrangements rather than limited economic relevance. Three scenarios—Symbolic, Developmental, and Economic Engine—illustrate how present fiscal classifications may create long-term institutional lock-in or enable gradual transformation. The manuscript proposes a staged restructuring pathway based on program continuity, stronger governance alignment, improved institutional readiness, and performance-linked fiscal expansion.