The impacts of temperature on reading and math test scores in West and Central Africa

Abstract While evidence suggests that heat negatively affects learning across diverse global settings, its impact in Africa is under-studied. This paper contributes to this knowledge gap by combining georeferenced temperature data with standardized student assessment data in Grades 2 and 6 from the Program on the Analysis of Education Systems (PASEC) in eight West and Central African countries. First, we estimate the effects of heat exposure on students' reading and mathematics test scores. We show that exposure to high temperatures has sizable negative impacts on test scores for students in Grade 2 and (in some cases) Grade 6, with effect sizes that are large relative to other world regions. Second, we explore how heat impacts child labor and school-based hunger among Grade 6 students, two potential mechanisms that could link heat to test scores. These analyses suggest that heat exposure increases time allocated to labor in many cases, though impacts on hunger are positive but imprecisely estimated. Third, we analyze whether the effects of heat on test scores vary by socioeconomic status (SES) and gender among both grades. We find that in most cases the effect of temperature on test scores varies little by socioeconomic background or gender with one exception: Extreme heat (above 33°C) has a disproportionately negative impact on higher-SES students in Grade 6. We interpret this pattern as evidence consistent with an erosion of compensatory advantage—wherein wealthier students who are typically buffered against adversity may experience larger learning disruptions under extreme heat.