Causality Between Participatory Governance, Private Credit and the Performance of the Sesame Supply Chain: Evidence from Chad

Background: This study analyses the predictive causal relationships between sesame supply chain performance, participatory governance, and domestic credit to the private sector in Chad. In Sahelian economies, agricultural value chains continue to be subject to structural constraints relating to limited access to finance and substandard institutions. Therefore, understanding the interactions between local governance, productive finance and agricultural performance is essential for guiding public policy. Methods: This analysis uses annual data from 2002 to 2021. Sesame production serves as an indicator of supply chain performance, while participatory governance is assessed using a composite index based on citizen participation, government effectiveness, and regulatory quality. The study applies the Granger causality test in the Toda–Yamamoto sense. Results: The findings reveal unidirectional causality from participatory governance to sesame production. The findings also reveal bidirectional causality between domestic credit to the private sector and sesame production. No direct causality was observed between participatory governance and private credit. Impulse response functions confirm that institutional and financial effects on production manifest themselves gradually over time. Conclusions: These results imply that sustainable development of the sesame sector in Chad necessitates an integrated strategy combining stronger local governance, improved access to private finance, and agricultural value chain modernisation.