How civil war intensity shapes post-war repression: State capacity, regime type, and conflict termination

This study examines the association between civil war intensity and post-war repression and explores the pathways through which this relationship may operate. Rather than assuming that more destructive wars necessarily produce more coercive post-war rule, it argues that severe conflict can reshape the institutional and political environment in ways that constrain repression. Using cross-national time-series data on post-civil-war country-years from 69 countries between 1989 and 2023, the analysis finds a robust negative association between civil war intensity and post-war repression. It then examines three possible pathways: post-war state capacity, post-war regime type, and conflict termination outcomes. The findings suggest that more intense wars are associated with weaker post-war state capacity, higher levels of post-war democracy, and a greater likelihood of ending through a ceasefire or peace agreement rather than outright victory. In turn, weaker state capacity, more democratic post-war regimes, and negotiated conflict endings are associated with lower levels of post-war repression. Overall, the results suggest that wartime intensity matters because it reshapes the institutional and political conditions of post-war governance.