The cost of housing in the very long run: Toledo, 1489–1810

Abstract We construct one of the longest continuous rent series for the pre-modern world, tracing Toledo’s housing market from 1489 to 1810. Using the Cathedral’s portfolio, we merge a hedonic microdataset (1489–1650) with a decadal census of leases (1650–1810), yielding over 34,000 transactions and coverage of up to 35% of dwellings in the city per sampled year. Privileged groups drove a bubble-like surge in rents during the sixteenth-century silver boom, while the working poor saw only modest increases. After 1600, the premiums once paid by artisans and shopkeepers over unskilled laborers steadily disappeared, marking the erosion of Toledo’s middle class. These findings underscore the role of housing markets in both reflecting and reinforcing inequality in early modern Spain.