COMPLEXITY ANALYSIS OF WILDFIRE FORECASTING TASK WITH MACHINE LEARNING

This article examines the complexity of probabilistic wildfire forecasting using machine learning. A training set including meteorological, satellite, and historical data is analyzed, distributions are visualized, and dimensionality reduction is performed using nonlinear t-SNE and UMAP methods. It is demonstrated that the "fire" and "no fire" classes significantly overlap in the feature space, suggesting the need for complex, nonlinear machine learning methods.

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Publication Details

Journal
NATURAL AND MAN-MADE RISKS (PHYSICO-MATHEMATICAL AND APPLIED ASPECTS)
Published
2026-07-17
DOI
https://doi.org/10.61260/2304-0130-2026-2-29-35
Primary Topic
Fire effects on ecosystems
Type
article
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article

COMPLEXITY ANALYSIS OF WILDFIRE FORECASTING TASK WITH MACHINE LEARNING

Andrey Goncharov
NATURAL AND MAN-MADE RISKS (PHYSICO-MATHEMATICAL AND APPLIED ASPECTS)
Fire effects on ecosystems
article

COMPLEXITY ANALYSIS OF WILDFIRE FORECASTING TASK WITH MACHINE LEARNING

Andrey Goncharov
article en

Abstract

This article examines the complexity of probabilistic wildfire forecasting using machine learning. A training set including meteorological, satellite, and historical data is analyzed, distributions are visualized, and dimensionality reduction is performed using nonlinear t-SNE and UMAP methods. It is demonstrated that the "fire" and "no fire" classes significantly overlap in the feature space, suggesting the need for complex, nonlinear machine learning methods.

NATURAL AND MAN-MADE RISKS (PHYSICO-MATHEMATICAL AND APPLIED ASPECTS)Vol. 2026(2)
Academy of the State Fire Service EMERCOM of Russia (RU)
Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 10%
Fire effects on ecosystems
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