Occupational labor markets, skills, and immigration concerns: Panel data evidence for Germany

Abstract Economic crises, technological change, and labor market transformations have long shaped political attitudes, particularly toward immigration. While existing research links occupational risks to anti-immigration preferences, which specific occupations drive this relationship remains underexplored. This research note addresses this gap by examining how occupation-specific skills (OSS) – defined as the amount of skills required to work in a given occupation – moderate the relationship between occupational labor market conditions and immigration attitudes. Drawing on sociological and comparative political economy perspectives, the paper argues that individuals with high levels of OSS are especially sensitive to deterioration in their occupation’s labor market conditions. The central theoretical implication is that adverse changes in occupational labor markets generate stronger political anti-immigration reactions among high-OSS workers, including Managers and (Associate) Professionals. Importantly, OSS are conceptually distinct from other occupational dimensions used in the literature, such as task specificity, and from other skill dimensions, such as general skill. The empirical analysis draws on over 20 years of longitudinal data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP), finding evidence consistent with the argument. The findings contribute to ongoing debates about the political behavior of high-skilled workers, a group whose attitudes toward immigration remain contested.