A dynamic analysis on the load capacity curve of forests in Türkiye

Purpose Forests are essential for maintaining ecological balance, preserving biodiversity and mitigating climate change. The study aims to test the validity of the Load Capacity Curve (LCC) hypothesis, which suggests a U-shaped relationship between economic growth and environmental load capacity, in the context of Türkiye's forest ecosystems. The study also examines the effects of tourism and energy consumption on forest environmental quality. Design/methodology/approach The study area is Türkiye, which has diverse forest ecosystems across various climatic and geographical regions. The study employs the Bound test, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and the Kalman filter technique for the period 1974–2022. The forest load capacity (FLC) is measured by the ratio of forest biocapacity (FB) to forest footprint (FF). Findings The ARDL model results show that economic growth initially reduces FLC, but beyond a certain turning point, the relationship is reversed. This confirms the LCC hypothesis in both the short and long run. Furthermore, tourism positively impacts forest sustainability, whereas energy consumption negatively affects it. The Kalman filter analysis reveals dynamic patterns, indicating that the negative impact of economic growth on forests has intensified over the last two decades. Meanwhile, the positive influence of tourism has weakened in the past ten years. Research limitations/implications The results emphasize the growing pressure of economic expansion on forest ecosystems and provide important findings regarding policies to be implemented to ensure the environmental quality of forests in Türkiye. Originality/value This study contributes to the existing literature in three areas. Firstly, we observed that this is the first study to examine the LCC hypothesis for forests for Türkiye. Although the LCC hypothesis has been investigated for Türkiye, this study differs from the existing literature in terms of its specific focus. Secondly, the forest LCC hypothesis is analyzed by including tourism and energy consumption variables in the analysis. Despite the importance of the issue, there are very few studies on the environmental impact of tourism in Türkiye. Thirdly, the non-linear relationship between FLC and economic growth is tested by using the Kalman filter technique, which is a time-varying parameter method. In this study, the environmental quality of forests is analyzed dynamically during the sample period.