Enhanced ENSO-driven potential predictability over the Euro-Atlantic under greenhouse warming

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) mainly influences the North Atlantic and European (NAE) climate through its teleconnection with the North Atlantic Oscillation. A strengthening of this teleconnection has been found under greenhouse warming, but its evolution across the seasonal cycle, its interplay with other tropical ocean basins, and its impacts on NAE predictability in future scenarios remain unclear. Using CMIP6 models, we show that this teleconnection intensifies and expands eastward under greenhouse warming scenarios, being robust in late winter and spring, systematically increasing potential predictability. In late winter, jet stream changes expand the predictable regions, while amplified ENSO amplitude and equatorial rainfall increase the magnitude of skill. Conversely, spring potential predictability is associated with changes in ENSO variability combined with a plausible enhancement of Tropical North Atlantic influence. These results provide multimodel evidence that greenhouse warming enhances ENSO-driven NAE potential predictability, with implications for climate adaptation in the region.

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Publication Details

Journal
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
Published
2026-07-17
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01482-w
Primary Topic
Climate variability and models
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00

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article

Enhanced ENSO-driven potential predictability over the Euro-Atlantic under greenhouse warming

Irene Polo, Belén Rodríguez-Fonseca, David Santuy
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
Climate variability and models
article

Enhanced ENSO-driven potential predictability over the Euro-Atlantic under greenhouse warming

Irene Polo, Belén Rodríguez-Fonseca, David Santuy
article en

Abstract

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) mainly influences the North Atlantic and European (NAE) climate through its teleconnection with the North Atlantic Oscillation. A strengthening of this teleconnection has been found under greenhouse warming, but its evolution across the seasonal cycle, its interplay with other tropical ocean basins, and its impacts on NAE predictability in future scenarios remain unclear. Using CMIP6 models, we show that this teleconnection intensifies and expands eastward under greenhouse warming scenarios, being robust in late winter and spring, systematically increasing potential predictability. In late winter, jet stream changes expand the predictable regions, while amplified ENSO amplitude and equatorial rainfall increase the magnitude of skill. Conversely, spring potential predictability is associated with changes in ENSO variability combined with a plausible enhancement of Tropical North Atlantic influence. These results provide multimodel evidence that greenhouse warming enhances ENSO-driven NAE potential predictability, with implications for climate adaptation in the region.

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
Universidad Complutense de Madrid (ES), Instituto de Geociencias (ES)
Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Horizon 2020, Agencia Estatal de Investigación
Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 10%
Climate variability and models
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