Economic Resilience to Inflationary and Geopolitical Shocks in the Euro Area: A Comparative Macroeconomic Analysis

This paper provides a comparative, descriptive assessment of macroeconomic adjustment dynamics within the euro area in response to the inflationary and crisis-related disturbances of the 2015Q1–2024Q4 period, with particular attention to the COVID-19 pandemic and the geopolitical shock associated with the Russia–Ukraine conflict. Using a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) framework estimated separately for the euro-area aggregate and four representative core and peripheral economies (Germany, France, Spain, and Greece), the analysis characterizes long-run equilibrium relationships and short-run adjustment dynamics among output, inflation, public debt, and unemployment. Rather than identifying structurally causal transmission, the study interprets the estimated cointegration structures, error-correction speeds, and impulse-response patterns as reduced-form indicators of how differently national systems absorb common disturbances. The comparative evidence points to substantial heterogeneity: core economies display comparatively more contained and coordinated adjustment, whereas peripheral economies exhibit stronger fiscal sensitivity, more persistent labor-market adjustment, and greater macroeconomic interdependence. Read together, these patterns suggest that resilience within the monetary union is better understood not solely as equilibrium restoration, but as the persistence, coordination, and stability of the broader adjustment process—and that asymmetric adjustment structures persist despite a common monetary framework.