Conservation outcomes across protected area strategies: Insights from a longitudinal analysis of the Brazilian National System of Conservation Units

Assessing land use and land cover dynamics in protected areas (PA) is fundamental to understanding how different conservation strategies influence outcomes across distinct territorial contexts. The present study provided one of the most comprehensive longitudinal assessments of the PAs under the Brazilian System of Nature Conservation Units, through geospatial statistical analysis of land use and cover variations between 1985 and 2022, drawing on an ad hoc Natural Cover Dynamics Index (NCDI). The results revealed persistent conversion of natural areas within Brazilian PAs, including strictly protected categories, with agricultural expansion emerging as the main driver of natural cover loss. Findings also indicated differences in conservation performance among PA categories, reinforcing broader theoretical and political debates around forest transition theory and land sparing versus land sharing strategies. Beyond providing large-scale empirical evidence on conservation outcomes in Brazil, the analytical framework developed in this study contributes to policy-oriented assessments aimed at improving strategic conservation planning and the effectiveness of protected area system.