Perceived Cognitive Effort and Judgment under Uncertainty: A Cognitive Perspective on Opportunity Evaluation

Evaluating novel opportunities under uncertainty is inherently cognitively demanding, yet limited research has examined how perceived mental effort relates to such judgments. Drawing on Cognitive Load Theory, this study investigates how perceived cognitive effort is associated with evaluative judgments when individuals assess technologically novel stimuli. Using a vignette-based experimental survey in which the innovativeness of the technological stimulus was manipulated (high vs. low), data were collected from 404 technology-oriented entrepreneurs, with all focal constructs measured through self-report scales. Perceived cognitive effort was associated with lower opportunity beliefs and expected returns. Risk-taking propensity attenuated the negative association between cognitive effort and expected returns, while informational social influence mitigated its negative association with opportunity beliefs. These findings indicate that perceived cognitive effort functions as a conditional cognitive constraint rather than a uniformly inhibiting factor in judgment under uncertainty.