How Rare and How Stable? Resilient and Vulnerable School Profiles in Hungary Before and After the COVID-19 Pandemic

Educational resilience commonly refers to better-than-expected academic outcomes among socioeconomically disadvantaged students or schools. However, little is known about its temporal stability, particularly in highly stratified and selective education systems such as Hungary’s, especially following major disruptions like the COVID-19 pandemic. This study investigates the prevalence and stability of resilient and vulnerable elementary school profiles in Hungary using data from the National Assessment of Basic Competencies (NABC). School-level pedagogical value-added (PVA) indicators were estimated separately for mathematics and reading comprehension and aggregated across two three-year periods: the pre-pandemic period (2017–2019) and the post-pandemic recovery period (2023–2025). Schools were categorized into resilient and vulnerable groups based on the intersection of social disadvantage and performance. The profile analyses included 2048 schools; regression models included 192–201 cases depending on data completeness. Results show that resilient schools are rare and only partially stable, with fewer than one-quarter maintaining this status after the pandemic. Logistic regression analyses show that prior resilience, lower levels of disciplinary problems, and maintainer type were associated with a higher likelihood of post-pandemic resilience, while school size, regional location, disadvantage level, and teacher shortages lost explanatory power. Overall, the findings support a dynamic, context-dependent interpretation of school resilience.