Fallow Fields, Falling Incomes: The <scp>CAP</scp> 2023–2027 Framework in the Italian Cereal Sector

Summary Analysis of recent Eurostat data shows a progressive decline in EU cereal production. While cultivated acreage has contracted steadily since 2013, the most severe output reduction occurred during 2022–2024, driving a surge in import volumes. This is mirrored in Italy, exposing systemic vulnerabilities within high‐value agri‐food supply chains amidst geopolitical volatility. Farm profitability has been eroded by a price‐cost squeeze: input costs – notably fertilisers and energy – surged, while output prices frequently fluctuated below break‐even thresholds. Concurrently, CAP 2023–2027 Eco‐schemes have intensified regulatory complexity. Within this framework, Italy's National Strategic Plan implemented standards regarding crop rotation. However, its extensive adoption diluted per‐hectare premiums, undermining the CAP's fixed‐budget framework. This domestic instability is compounded by exogenous shocks, such as the Covid‐19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine conflict, which exposed the EU's strategic dependencies and necessitated temporary environmental derogations to mitigate supply security risks. For the post‐2027 CAP, resolving regulatory instability is a strategic imperative. A recalibrated synergy between environmental stewardship and the revitalisation of production is essential to safeguard the resilience and global competitiveness of the EU agri‐food system.