The Impact of Climate Change on Soil Erosion Rates in the Chernozem Zone of Ukraine

ABSTRACT Soil degradation driven by accelerated water erosion threatens global food security. Quantitative estimates of soil erosion losses allow at‐risk areas to be identified and the success of soil management plans to be monitored. However, estimating soil erosion losses under changing climatic conditions is challenging, particularly at the scales relevant to soil conservation schemes. We addressed this problem by studying soil erosion in Ukraine. The study was conducted at two spatial scales: (1) a large (regional) scale—to reveal the overall impact of climate change on soil erosion and (2) and a small (catchment) scale—to highlight spatial variability in soil losses. Our large‐scale study assessed the intensity of water erosion in Steppe and Forest‐Steppe zones (Chernozem zone) of Ukraine by calculating climate‐based hydrometeorological factors during modern (1991–2020) and baseline (1946–1990) periods. We assessed small‐scale variation soil losses using a mathematical model. Our results indicated minor (3%–5%) increases in soil loss due to climate changes, as increased erosion attributed to intense rainfall events was largely offset by reduced losses from snowmelt in Spring. In the small‐scale study, the upland location modelled soil loss was an average of 22.6 t ha −1 year −1 of soil, whilst the figure for the lowland location was 2.42 t ha −1 year −1 . Both sites included large areas vulnerable to soil degradation (57.8% and 38.6%, respectively). The comparatively small impact of climate change on soil erosion losses does not diminish the severity of the water erosion problem in Ukraine, as a significant portion of the territory may still be at high erosion risk.