Criticality-Aware World Models for Complex System Societal Change Prediction Integrating A Unified Framework With RL, LLM, Multi-Expert Dynamics, Early Warning Signals, and Causal Counterfactual Reasoning

A new AI-driven, unified probabilistic framework improves crisis prediction in complex systems by combining specialized neural networks to detect phase transitions, heavy-tailed dynamics, and critical tipping points. The system integrates an LLM-powered news encoder, early warning signals, and causal counterfactual analysis for enhanced, uncertainty-aware forecasting.

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-07-16
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21396843
Primary Topic
Ecosystem dynamics and resilience
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
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article

Criticality-Aware World Models for Complex System Societal Change Prediction Integrating A Unified Framework With RL, LLM, Multi-Expert Dynamics, Early Warning Signals, and Causal Counterfactual Reasoning

L Sica Gabriel
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Ecosystem dynamics and resilience
article

Criticality-Aware World Models for Complex System Societal Change Prediction Integrating A Unified Framework With RL, LLM, Multi-Expert Dynamics, Early Warning Signals, and Causal Counterfactual Reasoning

L Sica Gabriel
article en

Abstract

A new AI-driven, unified probabilistic framework improves crisis prediction in complex systems by combining specialized neural networks to detect phase transitions, heavy-tailed dynamics, and critical tipping points. The system integrates an LLM-powered news encoder, early warning signals, and causal counterfactual analysis for enhanced, uncertainty-aware forecasting.

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Openalex Percentile: Top 10%
Ecosystem dynamics and resilience
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